AMERICAN SPLENDOR (Dramatic Competition, dirs: Shari Springer Berman, Robert Pulcini. Cast: Hope Davis, Paul Giamatti, James Urbaniak) -- No buzz at all, but an agent friend says buyers are on the case.

THE BEAT (American Spectrum; dir: Brandon Sonnier. Cast: Rahman Jamaal, Michael Colyar, Steve Connell) -- Ditto, but anything put into the American Spectrum selection carries qualified expectations. It's believed that the Sundance programmers consign movies to this section when they don't think they're strong and distinctive enough to be included in the Dramatic Competition slate.

BOOKIES (American Spectrum, dir: Mark Ilsley. Cast: Nick Stahl, Lukas Haas, Johnny Galecki, Rachel Leigh Cook) -- Buzz is solely based on the fact that Ilsley directed the gay-themed comedy HAPPY, TEXAS, which tanked with the public after Miramax picked it up at Sundance for a shitload. "It's been in the works for years," a producer notes.

BORN RICH (American Spectrum, dir: Jamie Johnson) -- This documentary about to-the-manor-born youths is generating interest purely for the subject matter. I'm almost turned off by it. I went to high school in Connecticut with kids whose families were very comfortable, and the richer ones wore creased blue jeans and were pretty damn vapid.

THE COOLER (Dramatic Competition, dir: Wayne Kramer. Cast: William H. Macy, Maria Bello, Alec Baldwin, Paul Sorvino) -- No buzz, except for the fact it has a name cast. My general rule of thumb is to approach any film starring Macy with caution. No disrespect or disdain implied; I'm just saying he's made his mark with ensemble casts. "I've heard it's a 'see,'" a distributor says.

THE HEBREW HAMMER (Midnight, dir: Jonathan Kesselman. Cast: Adam Goldberg, Andy Dick, Judy Greer, Peter Coyote, Mario Van Peebles) -- An agent tells me the nickname for this thing is "Undercover Jewish Brother." A producer who's seen it says "it's pretty funny..they screened it and no offers yet, but it's really special. There's some perception here and there that it's kind of an SNL skit movie. It's really not bad -- I'm just saying it's not anything anyone's going to go out of their way to buy. I think people are waiting to see how it plays at the festival."

IT'S ALL ABOUT LOVE (Premiere, dir: Thomas Vinterberg. Cast: Joaquin Pheonix, Claire Danes) -- Great expectations! Especially among those who loved Vinterberg's Dogme 95 film THE CELEBRATION. "It's commanding a lot of attention," says Jonathan Dana, a veteran Sundancer.

MUDGE BOY (Dramatic Competition, dir/screenwriter: Michael Burke. Cast: Emile Hirsch, Richard Jenkins) - Except for the fact that a person told me to include this film on the list, buzz is nada. It takes place on a rural farm and is about (initially, at least) a youth coping with the death of his mother. Does the title make you want to see this film? Be honest. The same guy who said he was interested in THE COOLER is calling this one "a see" also.

PARTY MONSTER (Dramatic Competition, dir: Fenton Bailey, Randy Barbato. Cast: Macaulay Culkin, Seth Green, Chloe Sevigny, Natasha Lyonne, Marilyn Manson) - A non-journalist friend who's seen it isn't throwing rose petals in the air, but what does he know? Hmm...wait a minute. An agent friend tells me footage has been seen by a buyer friend and "it's a big-time pass." Well, they're both full of it. I'm going anyway! It's based on a book called "Disco Bloodbath," and is about a couple of real-life Manhattan club guys named Michael Alig and James St. James who got caught up in a murder.

PIECES OF APRIL (Dramatic Competition, dir: Peter Hedges. Cast: Katie Holmes, Patricia Clarkson, Derek Luke, Oliver Platt) -- One of the "really hot" titles, an agent enthuses. I know nothing more, but I suspect the heat is mainly over Katie Homes having the lead role. I can hear the voices of potential male moviegoers already -- "Does she get naked in it?" Of course, only a pig would say such a thing and there's no place for commentary like that in a Sundance preview piece. But does she?

QUATTRO NOZA (Dramatic Competition, dir: Joey Curtis. Cast: Brihanna Hernandez, Victor Larios, Robert Beaumont) -- Violent doings among Southern California hip-hoppers. Cool title. Might be good (the publicist, Jeremy Walker, has told me I should make a point of seeing it early in the festival) or...who knows? Buyers will be circling.

THE SINGING DETECTIVE (Premiere, dir: Keith Gordon. Cast: Robert Downey, Jr., Robin Wright Penn, Jeremy Northam, Katie Holmes, Mel Gibson) -- Excellent rumble, I'm told, and "a class act...every acquisition executive in the world will be at the 6 pm Eccles screening on Friday evening. Keith Gordon is a respected director...everyone will be taking a good look at it...even though it's kind of a rough movie and there's some concern that people have already seen it by way of the British version that ran on PBS years ago."

A SONG FOR RAGGY BOY (World Cinema, dir: Aisling Walsh. Cast: Aidan Quinn, Iain Glen) -- On the buyers' list but "a dark Irish picture and a big maybe," an agent warns. "This is very much a caveat."

THIRTEEN (Dramatic Competition, dir: Catherine Hardwicke. Cast: Holly Hunter, Evan Rachel Wood, Nikki Reed, Jeremy Sisto) - Co-written by Hardwicke and costar Reed, the program notes (which are never anything to go by) call it "an uncommonly brilliant effort." Holly Hunter's performance said to be extraordinary; ditto Wood's. Dana tells me, "I hear it's good."

THE UNITED STATES OF LELAND (Dramatic Competition, dir: Matthew Ryan Hope. Cast: Ryan Gosling, Don Cheadle, Chris Klein, Lena Olin, Kevin Spacey, Michelle Williams) - Buzz is based on nothing except for the fact that Spacey produced and Gosling's as good as it gets among young actors these days. It's kind of a therapy drama. Caveat: the title of the film is also the title of the lead character's personal diary. Sounds a tiny bit precious.

Among those films with distributors or TV deals that sound interesting (and this part of the piece is definitely not comprehensive -- I'm just mentioning stuff I've heard about)...

THE BOYS OF 2ND STREET (American Spectrum, dirs: Don Klores, Ron Berger) - Documentary about group of boys who started out as kids in Brighton Beach in the 1950s and then took various life hits over the next forty-plus years. How they got swallowed up in the '60s counter-culture experience, dealt with adulthood and middle-age...the whole magilla. It's been bought by Showtime to be shown as one of its "premiere" section features next October. "Very profound track," an interested party confides. "An amazingly emotional movie...a generational story that's never been told."

THE MALDONADO MIRACLE (American Showcase, dir: Salma Hayek. Cast: Ruben Blades, Peter Fonda, Mare Winngham, Eddy Martin) -- Showtime has acquired this debut directing effort from Hayek, who will be attending the showings at the Eccles and Prospector on 1.20 and 1.21. "There are some people who've seen it," a guy ominously remarks.

MASKED AND ANONYMOUS (Premiere, dir: Larry Charles. Cast: Jeff Bridges, Penelope Cruz, Bob Dylan, John Goodman, Jessica Lange, Luke Wilson) -- Sony Classics has just picked this up. As I've heard it, the producer, Intermedia, went a long time looking for the right deal and not finding it. Reason: As with ENIGMA, the big-name cast cost a lot of money to hire and Intermedia wanted a lot of dough to cover itself, but nobody wanted to go that high. Until Sony Classics came along, that is, and cut some kind of deal.

THE TECHNICAL WRITER (Dramatic Competition, dir: Scot Saunders. Cast: Michael Harris, Taum O'Neal, William Forsythe) -- Word of mouth is only pretty good, but the Russian actress who played Tony Soprano's mistress is in it, and is expected to show up.

THE WHALE RIDER (World Cinema, dir: Niki Caro. Cast: Keisha Castle-Huighes, Rawiri Paratene, Vicky Haughton, Cliff Curtis) -- Be advised (or warned, as the case may be) -- this is a very audience-friendly film. "This movie is going to do very well up there," says Dana. "It's Bob Birney and that means watch out. It's gonna get launched." Why the enthusiasm? "The audience in Toronto picked WHALE RIDER over STANDING IN THE SHADOWS OF MOTOWN and BEND IT LIKE BECKHAM as their festival favorite."

The Man Who Would Be Dull

Your eyelids are getting heavy. You're feeling sluggish, listless...under the weather. You don't have the flu or even a cold, but something's wrong and you can't figure out what.

Then it hits you -- it's Monday morning and you've just finished reading a news story about the weekend box-office figures, and one of the industry analysts quoted was Paul Dergarabedian... that's it! You were thinking about taking a couple of aspirin and drinking plenty of liquids, when all the time it was just an involuntary reaction to a perfectly likable box-office analyst with a beard and a warm smile and a narcotizing way with words.

As the chairman of Exhibitor Relations, a Los Angeles company that monitors box-office results and receives financial support from the studios, Paul Dergarabedian is routinely requested by Hollywood industry analysts like THE NEW YORK TIMES Rick Lyman, USA TODAY's Scott Bowles, and Dave Germain of the Associated Press to explain the weekend numbers and give some kind of bland, toothless spin about which movie won or lost, and why.

Everybody likes Paul. He's a nice, dependable guy who always has the numbers at hand and is always ready to discuss them on Sunday afternoons, when box-office stories are usually written. And yet I feel he's giving the art of Hollywood box-office analysis an unfortunate taint of roteness and tedium. His pronouncements are almost oppressively mundane. I can't think of any statistic or judgment he's ever put forward that was wrong, but to me he always sounds so damnably measured, safe, underwhelming and status-quo affirming, which has a kind of Orwellian effect after a while.

When box-office snipers suggested last May that the opening-weekend take of George Lucas's dreadful ATTACK OF THE CLONES wasn't what it might have been (i.e., if word-of-mouth hadn't been so forbidding), Dergarabedian dutifully rushed to the defense of this contemptible film. ''George Lucas is bulletproof in terms of box office,'' he told Lyman. ''Regardless of what the critics say, people love these movies. To be the fifth installment in a series that's been around for 25 years and still to be making this kind of money is truly amazing."

See what I mean?

When Michael Ceipley, a TIMES freelancer, wrote that some observers "see the coming of KILL BILL and similar fare as the restoration of a new order" -- i.e., some kind of new cycle of cynical fetishized violence -- Dergarabedian brought a level-playing-field mentality to the discussion by noting "there will always be a desire by audiences to see more intense, more graphic or, in some ways, more realistic situations captured on film."

Can't argue with that, can we?

When MEN IN BLACK II, last summer's sequel to the 1997 megahit, earned an estimated $90 million over the five-day Independence Day holiday, Lyman wrote it had broken both the five- day Fourth of July record set by INDEPENDENCE DAY in 1996 ($85 million) and the three- day record set by the original MEN IN BLACK in 1997 ($51.1 million). And all three movies starred Will Smith.

Asked by Lyman for a quote about this noteworthy event, Dergarabedian said, ''Will Smith beat himself twice, which is pretty amazing."

Ask anyone who really knows this town, and they'll tell you there's a lot of drama, humor and intrigue to be found in the box-office battle each weekend. This or that movie tanked and some one's to blame, or a trailer has blatantly lied about the content of a just-opened film and audiences are feeling burned, or a good movie has opened poorly but might have a chance if the distributor will keep it in theatres and wait for the word-of-mouth to catch up. It's as exciting as anything that happens on a basketball court or on a football field. Just sussing out the different lies the studios are trying to float with the media in order to obscure what actually went down is a trip in itself.

But you'd never know this from listening to Dergarabedian. Or should I say, you'd never know this from reading those regimented box-office stories tapped out by Lyman, Bowles, Germain and their like-minded colleagues?

"The question isn't so much why isn't Paul Dergarabedian better," a veteran box-office analyst remarks. "It's why do people quote him and why are they unable to come up with their own conclusions and write something that makes for more interesting coverage? It's amazing to me that writing about the weekend numbers isn't more sophisticated. It's laziness. Don't hit Paul.... you should call the reporters who call him and quote him. They're the ones you should speak to."

So I did. Bowles didn't get back to me and Germain wouldn't get into it, but Lyman picked up the phone. He said he quotes Dergarabedian because he's accurate and dependable. "He's there, he calls you back and he gives you what you want, and that makes a difference," he noted.

Lyman acknowledged that Dergarabedian "certainly makes himself very available and quotable" and admitted "he tries to take as positive a view as possible quotable." Nonetheless, he said, "Call him up and ask for a comparison between the earnings of TITANIC and MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING, and five minutes later he'll call you back and have some comparisons worked out."

A former VARIETY reporter said, "I just never understood then or now what exactly are Dergarabedian's qualifications for being a box-office analyst. I never saw him as a provider of anything interesting in looking at things statistically, or in backing up his punditry with any numbers or empirical interest. Sports and political pundits usually have fairly interesting things to say about the games or campaigns, but not Paul. He's not even funny.

"But this is really about a kind of laziness from the people covering the box-office...the reporters and their editors," he added. "They're looking for somebody who's independent-minded but without an axe to grind, and to get that they're willing to accept a bland quote.

"The reason people focus on the box-office numbers is that people love a horse race," he explained. "You're trying to cover a fairly complex issue but people want a simple, quantitative way of dealing with it. To do this well and interestingly takes more than most journalists have or what most journalists want. Box-office stories give journalists a hook and they give readers an index. Given that people seem to want these numbers and want evaluation, you'd think people would also want something more sophisticated from an analyst. I don't see that Paul really provides that."

Who does? Who could do a better job, if asked?

The statisticians at Neilsen EDI (i.e., Entertainment Data Inc.), a service which provides the Hollywood-based studios and companies around the world with up-to-the-minute box-office information, are sometimes quoted here and there. And yet Lyman says he's never gotten anything from them that's appreciably better than what Dergarabedian provides.

Everyone knows that Dave Poland, whose Hot Button and Movie City News websites are a lively source of industry news and opinion, is a friend, but that said, I'd much rather read some blunt, no-holds-barred declarations from Poland about the latest box-office drama than some corporatized, rah-rah Dergarabedian spin. At his best, Poland is mouthy and flavorful in an almost Damon Runyon way. Dergarabedian is like a bearded Ari Fleischer...no, scratch that. Ari Fleischer is a more incisive spinner.

The best solution would be if Hollywood reporters could find their own Yogi Berra. Someone with a street vocabulary with a fuck-em-and-let-the-chips-fall attitude -- an unpretentious, fair-minded, man-of-the-people type who knows from numbers and can out-bullshit the bullshitters. He'd have to be shrewd, too. Someone who understands the town like the great Tom Sherak (i.e., the Revolution Studios executive who's one of the most planted and perceptive guys around), but not beholden to vested interests.

I would volunteer my own services, except I'm not really a numbers freak. I like reading about box-office intrigues, but at the end of the day I'm too much of a Keatsian, smell-the-roses, shoemaker-in-Florence type guy to give myself over to such madness.

Finalists

"Here are the four films I'm pretty sure will be nominated for Best Picture -- THE HOURS, LORD OF THE RINGS: THE TWO TOWERS, CHICAGO and THE PIANIST. I'm not sure about the fifth." -- Seasoned Hollywood Publicist

Wells to Publicist: One of them, Polanksi's, genuinely deserves the honor. Another one, Rob Marshall's, absolutely and categorically does not. A third, Stephen Daldry's, is a very nicely made, high falutin'movie about lesbianism, melancholia and suicide. The fourth, Peter Jackson's, is a good, robust, high-style epic that has obviously touched a lot of people and...oh, hell, give it the friggin' nomination. The fifth should be that exquisitely photographed Vietnam movie directed by Phillip Noyce.

Goodbye

"I just thought I'd drop a line to say I thought your little tribute to Conrad Hall (in "the Word" sidebar) was really nice. I never met him but I've worked with several cameramen who have and have always admired his work immensely. If the Academy doesn't give him a posthumous Oscar this year I'd be very surprised." -- Rupert Lally, London, England

Wells to Lally: I think he'll get the Oscar. Besides, the work on ROAD TO PERDITION stands on its own. I got sick of doing MOST WANTED DVD's but I'll probably be getting into it again before too long.

Malkovich

"Plain and simple -- John Malkovich gives me the creeps. I thought 'In The Line of Fire' was a terrific movie, but I don't want to see it again because John Malkovich gives me the creeps. " -- Ronald H. Koffler

Wells to Koffler: He doesn't give me the creeps at all. I know what you mean and all, but to me he's just...dryly perverse. I can't wait to see him in RIPLEY'S GAME.

Lewis

"I'd be careful about calling Lewis a weenie -- he might still have his gear from MOHICANS and GANGS, and I can see him geting into costume and running you down on Melrose, and then hanging your skin from the Beverly Center." -- Michael Mayo

A Year After

"So good to once again see your column ('The Year That Was')---like an old friend!---after so many days of tragedy and suffering. You didn't mention it (you didn't have to), but yes, movies are STILL important, despite the horror of all the megaton destruction and death in Manhattan. The world is forever changed after the 'Christmas Day Holocaust' (as I heard Rather's replacement term it, on a short-wave broadcast monitored out of CBS's temporary digs in White Plains). Yet, as you wryly note, CHARLIE'S ANGELS III has already gotten the greenlight. Plus ca change. . .

"Like most New Yorkers, my lady and I had to flee after the blast. They're now saying the suitcase nuke had about 125% of the power of the Hiroshima bomb. They're also predicting that the radiation alone will make the city below 59th street unapproachable for at least another 18 months. Anyway, we're for the moment over here across the GW bridge in Parsnip, NJ. No electricity yet, of course, but this techno-geek we're squatting with managed to rig up a generator. 21 of us share a single battered Mac PowerBook, and we each only get five minutes a day of computer time. (What's worse, arguably, is the lack of fresh food and toilets.)

"I'm sure you're already planning the following, but I'd love to see a column discussing the impact on the entertainment industry of the loss of some many great talents. It's now been confirmed that SEX AND THE CITY was indeed filming their series finale on location in Soho, on that Terrible Day.

"Likewise, Requiescat In Pace the following, whose names were just added to the hand-written list of Updated Confirmed Martyrs, which we get out of Harlem every couple of days: Rod Stewart, Kim Basinger, Pink, Conan O'Brien, Richard Gere, Barry Diller, J. Lo, Matt and Ben, Meryl Streep, Chris Walken, three-fourths of Sonic Youth, Sheryl Crowe (who picked the wrong day, I guess, to give another free concert), Scorsese, Woody and Soon-Yi, David Byrne, Spike Lee, Al Pacino, Carson Daly, Jill Clayburgh, Jimmy Page, Gwyneth Paltrow, Hank Azaria, Ed Burns, Paul Reiser, Venus Williams, John Milius, Lou Reed, Jim Broadbent, Yo-Yo Ma, Jeremy Irons, Ethan Coen, Lizzie Grubman and Sir Paul McCartney (and who would have ever believed that Ringo would be the last one standing?!).

"The ultimate irony for you, I suppose, is that Daniel Day-Lewis, shamed into re-thinking his retirement, had only that morning jetted over from Ireland, and was meeting with De Niro, Spielberg and Julia in Tribeca at Zero Hour. They'll never get to make that movie, of course, but their atoms are fused for all eternity now, for what that's worth.

"Oh yeah---the real reason I wrote: You thought Costner's OPEN RANGE possessed even a modicum of 'modesty'? Puh-leeeze! And I'd hardly call going $200 million over budget a 'cost overrun. I know for a fact that the radiation sickness hasn't made it to the Left Coast yet, so how do you explain your seeming dementia?

"Gotta go! These lesions on my face won't stop throbbing." -- Josh Mooney

Colin Farrell...

"...is the new Bill Campbell. Not that Bill Campbell ever was anybody (where's that ROCKETEER franchise, huh?) but tell me they aren't the same guy." -- Michael Gebert

Assumption

"I read your Sundance forecast piece. Any word on Ed Solomon's LEVITY" -- Hollywood Studio Guy

"It's the opening-night attraction, right? I think that pretty much says it all. They never pick anything too provocative for opening night. The edges are always sanded off, always a movie with a warm, uplifting, up-with-people theme of some kind. A romance, a social-malady piece... but always something uplifting, or vaguely helpful or educational. I never go to opening-night Sundance showings... never. There've been exceptions in terms of eventual real-world popularity ("Two Weddings and a Funeral") but it's generally the kiss of death.

Role Playing

I've been flaking with the games over the last two columns, and with Sundance looming I'll be pushing them aside further until my return-from-park City column runs on Wednesday, January 29th.

Today's cast: Ellen Barkin, Lance Henriksen, Mickey Rourke, Morgan Freeman, Elizabeth McGovern, Forrest Whitaker, Scott Wilson.

What's That Line?

A guy who's been in a kind-of coma has just come out of it, and is discussing his condition with some co-workers. One gives him a glass of water, which he immediately consumes. Caveat: this isn't a transcript of the finished film, but a page from a late draft of the shooting script.

Coworker #1: How do you feel?
Sick guy: Terrible. What happened to me.
Coworker #2: You don't remember.
Sick guy: Don't remember anything. I can barely remember my name.
Coworker #3: Do you hurt?
Sick guy: All over. Feel like somebody's been beating me with a stick for about six years. (smiles) God, I'm hungry.
Coworker #1: What's the last thing you can remember?
Sick guy: I don't know.
Coworker #1: Do you remember what happened on the planet?
Sick guy: Just some horrible dream about smothering. Where are we?
Coworker #1: We're on our way home.
Coworker #3: Getting ready to go back into the freezers.
Sick guy: I'm starving. I want some food first.
Coworker #3: I'm pretty hungry myself.
Sick guy: First thing I'm going to do when we get back is eat some decent food.